The Cook Political Report, which analyzes federal and gubernatorial elections, said Maine’s 2nd Congressional District still leans to the left, despite findings in the most recent public poll that suggested otherwise.
The poll, which was commissioned by the Portland Press Herald, showed Republican candidate Bruce Poliquin with a 10 point lead over his opponent, Emily Cain, a Democrat from Orono.
Here’s the analysis on the district election from David Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report:
A mid-September Portland Press Herald poll showed GOP former state treasurer Bruce Poliquin ahead of Democratic state Sen. Emily Cain 40 percent to 30 percent. But the poll raises some methodological red flags: first, it featured a tiny 200 person sample. Second, its sample was eight points more Republican than the district as a whole. Most other private polls continue to show Cain up by a small margin.
That said, this race is indeed closer than many expected. Some Democrats grumble that Cain has run subpar ads that don’t depict her as well as she comes across in person. Democrats’ House Majority PAC has taken to the airwaves to slam Poliquin as a Wall Street maven in the pocket of big insurance companies. This contest could be on the brink of joining the Toss Up column.
To view the full report, readers must have a subscription. This was sent to me by a couple Republican spokesmen, including David Sorensen, who highlighted in particular the assessment that this race is “closer than many suspected.”
Amy Cookson, Cain’s press secretary, was also pleased with the analysis. She said it’s great that someone is pointing out the flaws in the Press Herald Poll.
When asked about the ads, Cookson said, “I think everyone comes across better in person than they do on TV.” She added that she’s gotten very good feedback on the ad, though it’s the same one that needed to be corrected because the written disclaimer was not complete.